Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, …

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Abstract

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.

Figures

Examples of six experimental stimuli types for representing uncertainty in impact of fire on house location.

Odds ratios for (a) decisions and (b) outcomes for different representations relative to boundary representation for Experiment 1. Upper and lower 95% confidence limits are represented by the extent of the horizontal bars. A single asterisk indicates significance at the 5% level. As the boundary representation is the referent representation, it is not represented above.

Histogram showing user preference count for primary experiment. Order of the bars is the same as in Figure 6.

Odds ratios for (a) decisions and (b) outcomes for different representations relative to boundary representation for Experiment 2 (time pressure). Upper and lower 95% confidence limits are represented by the extent of the horizontal bars. A single asterisk indicates significance at the 5% level and the double asterisk indicates significance at the 1% level. As the boundary representation is the referent representation, it is not represented above.

Odds ratios for (a) decisions and (b) outcomes for different representations for Experiment 3 (dual task). Upper and lower 95% confidence limits are represented by the extent of the horizontal bars. A single asterisk indicates significance at the 5% level and the double asterisk indicates significance at the 1% level. As the boundary representation is the referent representation, it is not represented above.

Histograms of user preferences for (a) Experiment 2 (time pressure) and (b) Experiment 3 (dual task). Order of the bars is the same as in Figure 3.

BibTeX

@article{cheong_evaluatingImpactVisOfWildfireHazard_2016,
 abstract = {The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.},
 author = {Cheong, Lisa and Bleisch, Susanne and Kealy, Allison and Tolhurst, Kevin and Wilkening, Tom and Duckham, Matt},
 doi = {10.1080/13658816.2015.1131829},
 journal = {International Journal of Geographical Information Science},
 number = {7},
 pages = {1377--1404},
 title = {Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty},
 url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13658816.2015.1131829},
 urldate = {2026-03-25},
 volume = {30},
 year = {2016}
}